Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the political, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in universities but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with even the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two pieces that strive for neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and social statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Debates cover national emblems, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a negligent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but all factions has possesses something to acquire from the other's positions."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
